paraffin
Thesis:
Financial privacy is the foundation on which all other freedoms rely. We now have the technology to enshrine that foundation in the age of surveilance. We must normalize financial privacy by integrating it into ordinary culture and life.
Status:
Proof of concept stage.
Thesis:
Capital flight from US, long term risks to engine of prosperity. Economic slowdown and inflation risks. Default holding gold over cash, meaningfully cut US equities and FI exposure.
Status:
To date, mostly incorrect on equities, mostly correct on gold over cash.
Thesis:
Crypto has established itself, but transparent/public ledgers are increasingly being recognized as a bug, not a feature. The tech is there (Zcash, zk-proofs) and this migration will define the next era, most notably and clearly in "money."
Status:
Correct to date.
Outcome:
0.0x
Thesis:
Tropoflavin (7,8-dihydroxyflavone) gives its consumer a mild, non-jittery energy and positive mood, similar to a psilocybin microdose. Bringing the compound above-board with regulators and productizing it in an oral dissolving strip would make for a game-changing energy product.
Evaluation:
Good at bat with low-cost execution to end up at failed hurdle. Did not get FDA clearance due to Tropoflavin having been extensively researched for treatment of neurodegenerative disorders, which disqualifies it from being an approved dietary supplement.
Outcome:
2.75x in 1 year
Thesis:
Low risk entry into supplement world with recurring subscription revenue.
Evaluation:
Opportunity misevaluation--undifferentiated product, competitive market, did not crack profitable advertising. Generated return by way of IP asset sale.
Outcome:
~2x in 1.5 years
Thesis:
Non-fungible tokens as transformative technology that allows value accrual to digital items.
Evaluation:
Mostly incorrect. Mostly correct on entry, mostly incorrect on exit. Did not become as societally transformative as anticipated and held too long.
Outcome:
~200x in 1.5 years
Thesis:
Ethereum was finally coming into its own, but gas fees were way too high. EVM-compatible alternative L1s would offer the required low cost scale Ethereum was missing. Avalanche well positioned.
Evaluation:
Correct on entry and on exit. Mostly exited Winter 2021/2022 at 200x.
Outcome:
8x in 1.5 months
Thesis:
COVID would not be contained in China and would spread globally, was sufficiently dangerous to drive societal disruption, and the travel industry would be most vulnerable. Bet on the collapse of the airline industry by going significantly long short term deeply out of the money put options.
Evaluation:
Correct on entry and on exit. Closed position for 8x mid-March 2020 when markets panicked.
Outcome:
60x in 2 years
Thesis:
Bitcoin and Ethereum would change the world.
Evaluation:
Correct on entry and on exit. Properly recognized winter 2017/2018 mania.