paraffin
Thesis:
High-consideration, low-urgency purchasing is a poorly-served category. Price monitoring is real work, and the service-based solutions require actively managing an account and telling a company about yourself and your preferences. This is the way of the past.
Agents will manage purchase discovery and personalization, as your agent will know you best, and this will be done in natural language conversation, not navigating product category taxonomies. But agents searching widely across retailers consumes a tremendous amount of tokens.
The future is a single deal feed with structured data optimized for machine consumption. Your agent manages the triggers, enabling personalized discnerment around what is worth notifying you about, and you ask it in natural language. The model is affiliate fees on referred sales.
Status:
Live
Thesis:
We are now in the age of highly capable AI agents. This is the age that will, persist indefinitely and agents will be the interface through which we interact with all of the digital world and some of the physical world. Agents will be empowered to take all sorts of actions, including spend real money.
We are in the early adopter phase and a well-positioned brand only agents can access could become huge without requiring significant marketing spend.
Status:
Live
Thesis:
Financial privacy is the foundation on which all other freedoms rely. We now have the technology to enshrine that foundation in the age of surveilance. We must normalize financial privacy by integrating it into ordinary culture and life and encouragine the lionization of privacy and personal sovereignty.
Status:
Live soon.
Thesis:
AI agents will be a core part of every business and be a primary interface through which most connected humans will interact with the world. I am particularly interested in the implications on commerce, which will change dramatically as there is a brand new intermediary that will penetrate rather quickly.
I am covering these thoughts on the Paraffin Research Substack.
Investment implications: Long Cloudflare, the agentic economy's turnstile. Considering going short ecommerce retailers slow to this.
Status:
Very little time so far, but mostly correct; has exploded.
Thesis:
Capital flight from US, long term risks to engine of prosperity. Economic slowdown and inflation risks. Default holding gold over cash, meaningfully cut US equities and FI exposure.
Status:
To date, mostly incorrect on equities, mostly correct on gold over cash (+50%).
Thesis:
Crypto has established itself, but transparent/public ledgers are increasingly being recognized as a bug, not a feature. The tech is there (Zcash, zk-proofs) and this migration will define the next era, most notably and clearly in "money."
Status:
Correct to date (~10x)
Outcome:
0.0x
Thesis:
Tropoflavin (7,8-dihydroxyflavone) gives its consumer a mild, non-jittery energy and positive mood, similar to a psilocybin microdose. Bringing the compound above-board with regulators and productizing it in an oral dissolving strip would make for a game-changing energy product.
Evaluation:
Good at bat with low-cost execution to end up at failed hurdle. Did not get FDA clearance due to Tropoflavin having been extensively researched for treatment of neurodegenerative disorders, which disqualifies it from being an approved dietary supplement.
Outcome:
2.75x in 1 year
Thesis:
Low risk entry into supplement world with recurring subscription revenue.
Evaluation:
Opportunity misevaluation--undifferentiated product, competitive market, did not crack profitable advertising. Generated return by way of IP asset sale.
Outcome:
~2x in 1.5 years
Thesis:
Non-fungible tokens as transformative technology that allows value accrual to digital items.
Evaluation:
Mostly incorrect. Mostly correct on entry, mostly incorrect on exit. Did not become as societally transformative as anticipated and held too long.
Outcome:
~200x in 1.5 years
Thesis:
Ethereum was finally coming into its own, but gas fees were way too high. EVM-compatible alternative L1s would offer the required low cost scale Ethereum was missing. Avalanche well positioned.
Evaluation:
Correct on entry and on exit. Mostly exited Winter 2021/2022 at 200x.
Outcome:
8x in 1.5 months
Thesis:
COVID would not be contained in China and would spread globally, was sufficiently dangerous to drive societal disruption, and the travel industry would be most vulnerable. Bet on the collapse of the airline industry by going significantly long short term deeply out of the money put options.
Evaluation:
Correct on entry and on exit. Closed position for 8x mid-March 2020 when markets panicked.
Outcome:
60x in 2 years
Thesis:
Bitcoin and Ethereum would change the world.
Evaluation:
Correct on entry and on exit. Properly recognized winter 2017/2018 mania.